Luxury Valley Homes Arizona Market Watch
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Each month around the 15th we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
For the monthly period ending September 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $98.43 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is almost the same as the $98.46 we now measure for August 15. Our forecast range was $96.81 to $100.77 with a mid-point of $98.79. This month the actual value was once again very close to our mid-point.
Our prediction that positive annual appreciation would be reported from November 29 2011 onwards still looks very safe. The price level on September 15, 2012, despite the recent move lower over the last 3 months, is 24.9% higher than September 15, 2011. In fact appreciation has moved slightly higher in the last 30 days despite prices moving slightly lower. This is because price per sq. ft. reached its lowest point of $78.83 exactly 1 year ago.
On September 15 REO sales across Greater Phoenix (all types) averaged $78.68 per sq. ft. (up 3.4%). Pre-foreclosures and short sales averaged $76.92 (up 0.1%) while normal sales averaged $112.64 (down 1.4%). The market share of normal sales rose slightly over the last 31 days moving from 56.8% to 57.3% of sales. REOs dropped again from 14.4% to 13.9%. Short sales and pre-foreclosures market share was also a little lower, moving from 29.3% to 28.8%. The decline in pricing for normal sales, particularly due to low sales of higher end homes, was once again the main cause for pricing per sq. ft. falling very slightly between August 15 and September 15.
Our new mid-point forecast for the average monthly sales $/SF on October 15 is $102.52, which is 4.2% higher than the September 15 reading, and we have a 90% confidence that it will fall within ± 2% of this mid-point, i.e. in the range $100.47 to $104.57. This suggests an abnormally fast rate of increase similar to that we experienced in the spring. If prices continue to rise at this pace for an extended period we can expect to see more supply gradually entering the market.
September 15, 2011 – measured at $78.83 per sq. ft. – remains the $/SF pricing bottom exactly 12 months ago. The record low monthly median sales price is still standing at $107,000 and this record low point was set on February 24, 2011. Our current monthly median sales price is now $147,550 – 37.9% above that low point.
Winfield 85266 Community
You can see the Single Family Detached chart for the community of Winfield 85266. Just click on the link that follows: