The graphics displayed are related to the Valley of the Sun in Arizona or Scottsdale, AZ as designated. If you need information on another area of the Valley, call or email us and we’ll help provide those statistics.
Each month about this time we look back at the previous month, analyze how pricing has behaved and report on how well our forecasting techniques performed. We also give a forecast for how pricing will move over the next 30 days.
Market Summary for the Beginning of August
Although supply remains low by normal standards, it has been creeping upwards since early June, while sales volume has been in decline. The significant fall in sales volume is partly due to restricted supply, but the third quarter is always a weaker time of year for ordinary home buyers. The market is certainly less frenetic than it was in the spring and the Cromford Market Index is gradually falling from its peak of 181.7 reached on April 22.
Let us look at the basic numbers for August 1, 2012 relative to August 1, 2011. For all areas & types across ARMLS we record the following:
Active Listings (excluding AWC): 13,403 versus 20,196 last year – down 34%
Active Listings (including AWC): 20,085 versus 27,787 last year – down 28%
Pending Listings: 10,412 versus 11,491 last year – down 9%
Monthly Sales: 7,112 versus 8,663 last year – down 18%
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $98.54 versus $79.86 last year – up 23%
Monthly Median Sales Price: $145,000 versus $109,000 last year – up 33%
Greater Phoenix REO sales dropped below 14% of the monthly total this morning, the first time this has occurred since January 4, 2008. At their peak on February 11, 2009, they constituted 71.1% of monthly sales. Although it will take some time for them to disappear completely, REOs are no longer a major factor in the market. Contrary to to the popular myth, there are not a lot of foreclosed homes in lenders’ possession, so we don’t expect this REO supply to increase.
In contrast, short sales comprised 31.4% of all sales in Greater Phoenix in July. this is even higher than the 29.3% we now measure for June 2012. With short sales selling for a lower average price per sq. ft. than REOs, this has a negative effect on average pricing over the last 2 months.
Normal sales have fallen from 56% to 54.6% of sales and their pricing is down from $116.82 to $115.62 per sq. ft.
The changing supply situation varies greatly by location.
Maricopa Active Listings Are Less Driving Prices Up
Maricopa Monthly Average Sales Price Rev-6-29-2012